First Round Assessment: Goal Scoring

The very last game of the first round has just been played.  As scoring goals is the best way to win, let's start with that.  So far, there have been a low number of goals scored, 27 in 16 games; 1.69 per game.  Two matches have ended in goal-less draws.  Two games had three or more goals: Germany scored four against Australia, and Brazil and North Korea finished 2-1.  Predictably, Germany and Brazil are already among the higher scoring nations, as well as the Netherlands.  The Korea Republic with two is an early surprise.

What has struck me about these goals is the unusually high number of different players who have made their mark: 27 so far.  Despite all the betting and predictions on who will be the top scorer, so far no one has managed more than one.  It is certainly too early to make any kind of conclusions on the goal scorers; for example, Paolo Rossi, who scored six for Italy's 1982 World Cup team and was the top scorer of the tournament, did not score until they reached the knockout stage.  His hat trick against Brazil is now legend.  What I find so interesting is the great number and variety of players who have scored.  Scoring is not just for forwards anymore. 

There appears to be a trend in the spreading or flattening of goal scoring, certainly on the Italian team.  The top scorer at the 2006 edition was Germany's Miroslav Klose with five.  Italy, the Champions, scored 12, and Germany 14.  These are petty average numbers for the World Cup for past several decades (see Fifa World Cup Stats).  But Italy's top 2006 scorer had two, and there were two of them: Luca Toni and Marco Materazzi, a forward and a defender respectively.  The other times Italy reached the finals, it had scorers at the top, such as Paolo Rossi, Roberto Baggio and Salvatore Schillaci with five, six goals.  Instead, Italy had scored 12 goals with ten different players.  Truly an assailing force from all sides.  

This should also help to break the catenaccio myth, the tactic with which Italy supposedly has been playing with for decades.  From the World Cup so far, I would say that the rest of the world is using catenaccio, and Italy has gone beyond.  The other traditionally non-scoring roles have begun to step up in attacking roles.  Known world wide for being at the receiving end of Zidane's head butt, Materazzi had already had a national reputation for scoring goals, though a central defender.  He generally puts in around six goals a year for his side; not too shabby for a guy who is supposed to stay rooted in his own defensive area.  There were other defenders were important for Italy that year, such as Fabio Grosso, who procured a penalty kick in the knockout stage, and scored the first goal against Germany in the semifinal; and Zambrotta, who scored against the Ukraine.  (Every Italian forward that played, by the way, had a goal too.)

Getting back to catenaccio, this is one of the reasons why there have been few goals so far.  Catenaccio- the defensive playing style developed in Serie A during the sixties, and for which the rest of the world derided Italy but secretly admired and perfected in unlit, tucked away corners- has become normal tactics.  People have been disappointed with Brazil's somewhat sweated 2-1 victory over North Korea.  Ball possession Brazil 63%, and 26 shots, but if there are eight defenders in the goal area, then the only ways you can score are on set pieces and fast breaks.  And Brazil scored on 2 more-or-less fast breaks- actions moving quickly up the midfield that don't allow the defenders to group and settle in.  North Korea, the "mystery team," had reportedly spent four months practicing behind closed doors; no doubt sprinting and pumping iron judging from their athletic form, and memorizing catenaccio plays.  No attempt whatsoever to play the ball, just 8 defenders in the area and reliance on their very rapid and scrappy forwards to do damage up top.  Sure, they got a goal; so what?  Brazil is not known for its strong defense, but for its champagne football and strong goal scorers.  North Korea played for a goalless draw, and hoped for a goal or two in a fast break.  In all honestly, that's the best they could have done against one of the world's best teams. 

A springy Italy dominated against Paraguay, but with it was impossible to shoot past the red and white blockade.  Italy nearly scored on several fast breaks: three or four touches and they had shots on net.  Indeed, they finally scored off a set piece: a corner kick tapped in by defensive midfielder Daniele De Rossi.  When catenaccio forces the hand (or in this case, foot), that's how you get past it: fast breaks and set pieces.  

So far, eight defenders have scored in the 2010 World Cup, that is nearly one-third of those scored so far.  Midfielders and forwards figure into the rest.  What this shows us so far is that scoring is not just for forwards anymore.  And, judging from the own goals, it's not limited to the adversaries, either.