In England, the build-ups to international tournaments -- at least, ones for which we've qualified -- have a familiar pattern. The players and management make bullish statements about how good our chances are this year; sections of the media amplify the sentiment; unpromising displays in warm-up games are dismissed as meaningless; the population starts to believe it all; and everything is ready for a deflationary, lucky win against some minnow of the world game in the first group-stage match.
This year is no different, and so the announcement of
Capello's squad yesterday didn't provide the corrective to the national mood that it probably should have done. When
Capello took the job, he was lauded for his blunt statement that no player unfit or out of form would be part of his squads. This bold and entirely sensible stance seems to have been forgotten somewhere along the line. The selection of several crocks, coupled with (and forced by) a lack of international class in some positions, indicate that England will be lucky to do better than their customary quarter-final exit on penalties.
GoalkeepersDavid James (Portsmouth); Robert Green (West Ham); Joe Hart (Man City)
Nobody is sure who
Capello will go with as number one. Perhaps he doesn't yet know himself. David James is the most senior keeper, but has never lost his knack of doing utterly stupid things with depressing regularity. Of the other contenders, Green stops shots well but tends not to dominate his area, and Hart is utterly untried at high level. In this position, England struggle to find a solution.
DefendersJamie
Carragher (Liverpool); Ashley Cole (Chelsea); Rio Ferdinand (Man United); Glen Johnson (Liverpool);
Ledley King (
Tottenham); John Terry (Chelsea); Matthew
Upson (West Ham); Stephen
Warnock (Aston Villa).
A few years ago, centre-half seemed to be England's strongest position. Now... oh, dear.
Capello's first-choice pairing is Ferdinand, who has missed half the season with chronic back trouble, and Terry, who has spent most of the season looking very shaky, and recently developed a worrying propensity for making 'robust' challenges that are likely to see him off the field early. In reserve, we have, first, Jamie
Carragher, coaxed out of international retirement owing to his versatility -- he's equally slow, clumsy, and unsuitably physical at right-back or centre-half. Second,
Ledley King, who is a wonderful defender but can't usually play more than one game a week owing to serious knee problems. Finally, Matthew
Upson is nothing if not ordinary.
As for the full-backs, Ashley Cole is a genuinely great left-back. On the right, Glen Johnson is excellent attacking, but consistently dozy in defence. Backing them up, Stephen
Warnock has played in one international and a handful of Champion's League games. He may do fine if called upon, but can't come close to Cole.
MidfieldGareth Barry (Man City); Michael
Carrick (Man United); Joe Cole (Chelsea); Stephen Gerrard (Liverpool); Frank
Lampard (Chelsea); Aaron Lennon (
Tottenham); James
Milner (Aston Villa); Shaun Wright-Phillips (Man City).
Lampard has had an excellent season and belongs on a world stage;
Milner has been a revelation in central midfield and deserves his place. The rest present worries. Cole and Lennon have only recently returned to full fitness following long lay-offs, and though they look quite sharp, it's hardly an ideal build-up to the tournament. Barry is still injured, and will most likely not be ready until England's second game. In the past, taking players carrying injuries to the World Cup has worked out very badly for England, and it would be no surprise if it did so here too.
Carrick, Wright-Phillips, and Gerrard have all had seasons ranging from the disappointing to the dreadful. The latter, at least, has retained his club manager's trust, but has become mired in Liverpool's sticky, slow decline. International football may revive him; it also may not.
Carrick and Wright-Phillips have spent most of the season as subs, or not even in squads, and neither has looked good when given a chance. The suspicion is that they're both just not good enough at this level.
As a whole, the England midfield selection displays the apparently interminable dearth of natural left-footers in the country, and it's hard to see how a balanced, cohesive, tactically aware unit capable of troubling the best
midfields in the world is going to be forged from this lot.
ForwardsPeter Crouch (
Tottenham); Jermain Defoe (
Tottenham); Emile
Heskey (Aston Villa); Wayne Rooney (Man United).
Rooney is England's principal attacking force by far, and it's vital that he keeps his temper under control. He's much better at that now, and if stays on the field, he can win games on his own.
Of the others, though, there are doubts. Crouch and Defoe have never quite seemed to work as foils for Rooney. Crouch has scored lots of international goals, but mainly against poor teams. Defoe hasn't even got that going for him, and consistently looks a touch short of class. As for
Heskey, his selection was predictable; he really does seem to bring out Rooney's best. However, he is another player who's spent most of the season out of favour at his club, only starting games when other players are unavailable.
Now, all this could work to England's advantage. The players returning from injury, or coming off seasons spent doing nothing much on the sidelines, may be fresher than they would have been had they been fit all season. Those who've been lacklustre at their clubs may rediscover their shine in South Africa. And those who look just not good enough to play with the very best may manage to up their game in the company of those -- A Cole,
Lampard, Rooney -- who really do deserve the international stage. But that's a lot of ifs. England are joint-third favourites on the most popular betting exchanges. My punt would be on the usual -- out in the quarters with a hard-luck story to paper over the cracks.