Day 36: Lazio-Inter, and the race for the Scudetto

There has been a debate raging these past few days: Will Lazio throw the game against Inter? Would they rather lose and keep Inter at the top of the table, rather than win and allow their hated sister Roma to retake the lead?

Surely, you can't argue that Lazio's best-played games are the Roman derbies; they say Lazio only plays well during the derby, and are pitiful the rest of the tournament. Strangely enough, the same cannot be said for Roma. They play well or not, it depends on the day. Take the latest derby, just three weeks ago. Galvanized by having the home crowd, and being the derby, Lazio was up at the 14th minute thanks to Captain Rocchi. Roma, with Captain Totti and Vice-captain De Rossi, were a nervous and tentative bunch. After all, every game is decisive for the scudetto at this point, and Roma had moved to the top for the first time all year. Coach Claudio Ranieri made a bold and unprecedented move at the half: he took out the Roman icons Totti and De Rossi, and replaced them with Rodrigo Taddei and Jeremy Menez. This was just unheard of: taking out the Romans from the Roman derby?!?

It was a move that paid off instantly: Taddei was fouled in the box, and Vucinic transformed the penalty into a goal: 1-1. Then Menez was fouled just outside the box, and Vucinic stepped up to take the free kick: 2-1, and Roma took the derby, and reclaimed the top of the charts again. Ranieri did not "look anyone in the face," made the decision that had to be made, and brought home the win.

Roma let the lead slip from her fingers, losing to Sampdoria last week 2-1. And naturally, Italian Calcio (and press) seethed, boiled, and roared: What will happen during Lazio-Inter? Remember May 5, 2002, when Lazio tied Inter, and Inter lost the scudetto to Juventus? Will history repeat itself? Will Lazio help its sister Roma reclaim the top? Article after article, blogs, and comments accusing Lazio of planning to throw the game; Lazio "fans" urging their team to lose so that the title remained out of Roma's grasp.

After considering the current championship and Lazio's more distant past, I believe that it would have been very difficult for Lazio to have won yesterday's match. Glancing quickly at their results: Lazio vs. the top 7 teams of the table (Roma, Inter, Sampdoria, Palermo, Juventus, Napoli). Lazio managed to recoup a few points from some of the teams, drawing instead of losing. But overall, Lazio is still in danger of retrograding, fighting it out with Bologna to avoid the playout spot. Can we really expect such a team to beat one that has 36 vantage points (that's 12 victories more)? Even a tie would be a great accomplishment.

So for all of you who cried "Scandal!!!" at the way Lazio played last night, I think you should review some statistics and numbers before making an emotional outcry. It's too easy, in the nation where "Calciopoli and conspiracy" fall regularly from quotidian lips, to believe Lazio had even a minimum of control or influence over their performance.

And for the record, Lazio had a pretty good game, considering she was outrageously outclassed. Keeper Muslera contained the results with a number of timely and spectacular saves: MVP.